Uttarakhand Braces for Deficient Rainfall in Late October 2025 Amid Normal Temperatures

Uttarakhand is heading into a dry spell just as farmers and forest officials were hoping for a late-season moisture boost. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its Extended Range Forecast on October 16, 2025, warning that rainfall across the state from October 17 to October 30 will be significantly below normal—while temperatures remain surprisingly comfortable. The message is clear: don’t expect rain, but you won’t need to turn on the AC either. This isn’t just a weather quirk. For a state where agriculture, hydropower, and pilgrimage tourism all hinge on seasonal water patterns, even a modest rainfall deficit can ripple through livelihoods, ecosystems, and daily life.

What the Numbers Tell Us

The previous week (October 9–15, 2025) already painted a concerning picture: Uttarakhand received just 7.6 mm of rainfall, compared to the long-term average of 10.5 mm—a 27% shortfall classified by IMD as “Deficient.” In the hills, where temperatures are naturally cooler, the weekly average maximum was 21.2°C, nearly a full degree below normal. Minimums hovered at 10.7°C, also slightly chilly. In the plains—places like Haridwar and Roorkee—maximums hit 30.0°C, just half a degree below average, with minimums at 17.3°C. No extreme heat. No cold snap. Just… less rain.

Two Weeks of Dry Weather Ahead

The forecast for the next two weeks isn’t getting better. Week 1 (October 17–23, 2025) is labeled “Large Deficient,” meaning rainfall could be less than half the normal amount. Week 2 (October 24–30, 2025) remains “Deficient,” with no relief in sight. Meanwhile, temperature anomalies are expected to vanish entirely—both hilly and plain areas will see maximum and minimum temperatures within their normal seasonal range. That’s the twist: it’s not hotter or colder. It’s just drier. And that’s often more dangerous.

What Residents Can Expect

Looking at broader forecasts, Uttarakhand as a whole is projected to see only about 34 mm of rain for the entire month—roughly equivalent to two light showers. Weather25.com estimates just two rainy days, 29 dry days, and an average of nearly 12 hours of sunshine daily. In Haridwar, highs will climb to 84°F (29°C) by October 30, while lows dip to 61°F (16°C) by month’s end. In Sagar, a town in the Garhwal region, temperatures will peak at 90°F (32°C) on October 31, making it one of the warmest days of the month. Meanwhile, Dehradun’s hourly forecast for October 29 shows a steady climb from 72°F at midnight to 88°F by noon—a typical autumn day, just without the rain.

Why This Matters Beyond the Forecast

Uttarakhand isn’t just about scenic views and temple visits. Its rivers—Ganga, Yamuna, Alaknanda—are lifelines for millions downstream. Hydropower plants in the hills rely on consistent flow. Farmers in the Terai belt are planting winter crops like wheat and mustard, which need moisture in October to establish roots. With rainfall this low, irrigation systems will be stretched thin. Groundwater recharge, already under pressure from overuse, won’t get the seasonal boost it needs. And in forested areas, the dry spell increases fire risk. Last year, October fires in the Kumaon region burned over 1,200 hectares. This year? The conditions are eerily similar.

Meanwhile, pilgrims heading to Kedarnath and Badrinath will find the trails dry and the air crisp—no mud, no delays. But water supply at rest houses and campsites may be rationed. Local authorities are already urging visitors to carry their own water.

What’s Next?

The IMD’s next update is due November 1, 2025, which will assess whether this dry pattern extends into November. If it does, it could signal the start of a drier-than-average winter—a pattern that’s become more frequent in recent years. Experts point to shifting jet streams and reduced moisture inflow from the Bay of Bengal as possible contributors. But the data isn’t conclusive yet. What’s clear: Uttarakhand’s climate is changing, and the state’s infrastructure isn’t always keeping pace.

Historical Context: Is This Normal?

October rainfall in Uttarakhand has been trending downward since 2018. Between 2015 and 2019, the state averaged 52 mm of rainfall in October. In 2022, it was just 28 mm. The 2025 projection of 34 mm is slightly better than 2022, but still far below the 40-year average. And while temperatures have remained stable, the lack of rain is becoming the new normal. In 2023, a similar dry October led to water rationing in Dehradun and reduced hydropower output by 18%.